Alert Details Alert Sent
Message e88ce871-8cd5-44eb-9434-f04ecca35422 from ABMS_Met_Office sent at 21:53:16 on 2021-08-12
Status / Scope / Type Actual / Public / Alert
References
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Referenced by
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Info
Language
EN
Alert summary
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND AFFECT THE AREA
Effective
21:53:16 2021-08-12
Expires
20:53:16 2021-08-13
Description
A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, IN THIS CASE, A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH OVER A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS IN OUR MONITORED AREA. WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NOT REQUIRED AT THIS TIME BUT MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
GIVEN THE INHERENT FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING AL95 WITH RESPECT TO TIME OF FORMATION, EVENTUAL TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY, IT IS NOT YET POSSIBLE TO SAY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE WHAT WILL BECOME OF THIS SYSTEM, AT THIS TIME. NOTWITHSTANDING, AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 POSES A MINOR THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS AND MINOR FLOODING, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS, SOME DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE AND MINOR DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE. TO BE SAFE, BE PREPARED TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE SEASON DISASTER PLANS.
AT 5 PM ECT OR 2100 UTC, THE CENTRE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 WAS LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM HAS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A LOT OF TIME FOR IT TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND SPARE THE ISLANDS.
Instructions
RESIDENTS SHOULD MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL95 CLOSELY AND HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED TO SAFEGUARD LIFE, PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD, IN THE EVENT WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE ISSUED, SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 9 PM THIS EVENING OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.
Contact
ABMS Met Office at 462-3017, if confirmation of this message is needed.
Category
Rescue
Safety
Met
Transport
Affected areas
Antigua
Barbuda
Urgency / Severity / Certainty
Future / Minor / Likely
Sent by
Dale Destin
Event code(s)
SAME = CEM
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